Good News from Pakistan

Okay... so I don't post all that often. There's a whole bunch of fascinating stuff going on, particularly with the Mohammed cartoons that I could go on about... but it's all being covered elsewhere in great depth, and I'd rather not just repeat what others are saying. Instead, I'll look for big events I don't think are getting enough attention.

Like this. Pakistan had economic growth of %8.4? That's awesome. It also fits in with a broader trend on the subcontinent that's extremely encouraging for a whole range of reasons.

A couple of things are happening here. Before 9-11, Pakistan was drifting steadily in a dangerous direction. Cut off from its traditional American ally, it funded the Taliban in Afghanistan to create 'strategic depth' to its north, and encouraged all kinds of Islamic extremist groups conducting jihad against India to the south, focusing on Kashmir. Since 9-11, however, reengagement by America has thrown Pakistan a lifeline. That lifeline has given President Musharraf the confidence to change direction, and jump on a new horse. This horse is not exactly a liberal-democratic horse -- it's kind of a motley half-breed, part-autocratic and part liberal-reformer. It's staying power remains a mystery, but it certainly seems to be fast.

Yes, anyone purporting to support liberal-democratic ideals can be accused of hypocrisy for backing Musharraf. Yes, he led a military coup, and has paid the reintroduction of democracy only lip-service since taking power. But it's worth noting that a) democracy hasn't worked very well in Pakistan since independence, with government after government absolutely notorious for the worst kinds of corruption and nepotism, and b) Musharraf seems very popular in Pakistan amongst the right kinds of people -- ie; the young, the moderate, the forward-looking. He's extremely unpopular amongst the conservatives and the Islamists (who have tried to kill him on several occasions), so he must be doing something right. The entire democratic system in Pakistan needs to be overhauled before democracy can be reintroduced in full, I'm no expert but what I've read suggests there's fundamental flaws in the way the democratic system works there. In the meantime, we can hope Musharraf keeps on doing what he's doing -- the good bits at least, his critics do a fine job at pointing out all the flaws.

This move away from the Islamists, underwritten by American economic and strategic support, has allowed Musharraf to embrace the peace-process with India more seriously than any Pakistani leader has since the two nations' founding. Which doesn't mean that Musharraf believes in the process any more than his predecessors, it just means that he's the first one for whom it made strategic sense to implement it. Already there is a bus and rail link. More are being discussed, and there's even talk of direct flights. And of a pipeline from Iran, which may not be great for Iran-specific reasons, but it's encouraging that India is even considering trusting Pakistan enough to let a major gasline run through their territory. There was cross-border cooperation during the recent Kashmir earthquake, and government officials at all levels seem to be talking to each other, at least on occasion.

Best of all, there's the economy. The long list of potential trade items, that were once prohibited, are now being freed up. Pakistan and India are natural trading partners, and India is booming. For example, India has a massive and growing textile industry, while Pakistan is a major cotton producer. The synergies are obvious. Furthermore, Pakistan enjoys all the same advantages that allowed India to become a major outsourcing power -- a large, educated, English-speaking upper class who can do high quality work for low wages. As Indian investment and expertise becomes available to them, expect Pakistani software and call-centers to flourish, with other industries to follow. Pakistan's population means they'll never be a rival to India... but 160 million is still the same size as Brazil.

There's already far more synergy between India and Pakistan than many outsiders might expect. Bollywood movies are all the rage in Pakistan, while Pakistani rock groups like Jinoon are popular in India. Both nations love cricket, and many people who live on either side of the border once lived on the other side (Musharraf himself, indeed) or have parents or grandparents who did. A liberal economic environment between the two nations could bind both sides together far faster than might have previously seemed likely, given the recent history of conflict -- many Indians and Pakistanis themselves admit that they remain basically the same people, with the same culture, and the same history. Rapid economic growth that was shared between the two nations would create even more incentive to develop further ties, and would marginalise the war-mongers of both nations.

This would be wonderful news for Afghanistan, who would find themselves sitting on the doorstep of a modern economic miracle, with direct land-links through Pakistan to India. Afghanistan is already growing very fast (easier to do off such a low base, it's true, but good news all the same) and good news in Afghanistan is bad news for Islamists.

Then there's Islamism itself. Wealth by itself does not necessarily neutralise fanatical ideals (look at the wealthy Saudis on the airplanes on 9-11) but in a developing liberal democracy like India, it certainly can. Look at Sania Mirza. One of the most popular people in all India, she's forcing a reassessment in many quarters about what a young Muslim woman actually is. Yes, there was a fatwa against her on-court dress, but more importantly, that fatwa was recently dismissed by a senior muslim council -- an example of how such things can further constructive debate and advancement. I read a story about how Sania's emergence has coincided with a huge jump in the number of Muslim women in India (even those in purdah) attending fitness centers, for example.

In a fast-developing, liberalising, urbanising nation, there will be plenty more like Sania. We in the west can guess such things, because we've been there ourselves -- cultural liberalisation and economic development do go hand-in-hand in liberal democracies, as a quick glance at the 1960s should show. They're kissing now in Indian movies, which was taboo just a few years ago. There's a big culture-gap developing between the generations, in expectations of marriage, women's-rights, and 'acceptable behavior' in general. It happens. It's usually a good thing. If this wave of cultural liberalisation begins to sweep the Pakistani middle-classes along with it, and if those middle-classes continue to grow as fast as rapid economic growth suggest they could, it'll be the worst thing that could happen to Pakistan and Afghanistan's Islamists. It'll take a long time, but the most lasting changes always do. Expect further trauma, protests, national days of anger, etc, etc. The dark ages will resist with everything they have, once they realise the mortal nature of the threat. But make no mistake -- in the long term, the greatest threat to Islamism in Pakistan and Central Asia is not American bombs or 'zionist plots', but Bollywood, music television and designer jeans.