The Next Superpower

I had to do an India post at some point. I'll try to keep it shorter than it might be -- there's a lot to talk about. Let's start here. The American media is finally noticing that something amazing is happening in India.

Why is this important to an SF writer? Well, it should be important to all of us, SF writers or taxi drivers. But mostly, it'll shape the future like nothing else, and that's a big part of what SF's about. India's rise is a part of the backdrop in my Cassandra Kresnov Series. It's certainly a part of Ian McDonald's upcoming novel River of Gods, also from Pyr, which is on my to-read list.

Why is India poised to do better than China? Well maybe it's not... but this is my opinion. China has yet to prove it can handle chaos. The modern world is heading toward a state of orchestrated chaos -- free markets, free trade, free flows of information from all parts of the globe. Totalitarian systems struggle to handle chaos, because their adaptability is limited. We saw the South East Asian economic collapse of 1997 happen for precisely this reason. India on the other hand IS chaos. The coming chaotic world will be a yawn to most Indians, it couldn't possibly be more chaotic than what they live with every day. And they already have the foundation for everything a modern nation needs -- democracy, educational institutions, legal system, free press, civil NGOs, etc. It's one thing to try and teach democracy and liberal practises to people whose culture has no experience of it -- India doesn't need to be taught, it's in their cultural genes like it is with Americans or Australians.

India's massive internal diversity also ensures it's almost immune to nationalistic or religious extremism. It's by no means a peaceful country -- there are more minor insurgencies in India than probably any other nation. But this is a nation of many states that could each pass as a nation in their own right, each with their own language, culture, histories, etc. West Bengal is really no more similar to Tamil Nadu than Germany is to Spain. This is also why the much feared religious flareups never hurt the country for too long, because a Hindu from West Bengal is probably going to have more in common with a Bengali Muslim than a Tamil Hindu. Or in other words, regionalism is usually stronger than religious sectarianism. Better yet, whatever the radical fringes, both Indian Hinduism and Islam are amongst the world's more peaceable religions -- Indian Islam is interwoven with thick strands of Sufism, which is mystical, musical and generally peaceful. Indian politics breaks down not only by religion and by region and language/ethnicity, but also by caste, urban/rural, marxist/capitalist, young/old... and there's also the so called 'tribals', who don't seem to fit any of the above very well, just to make things more complicated (hey, it's India). India may be unstable on the small scale, but all those little instabilities balance themselves out on the large scale. In India, EVERYONE's a minority.

There are some nations whose future rise cause me some concerns. China, for one -- if it goes democratic (and surely one day it must) then that'll be a big improvement, but even then, its a relatively homogenous nation known for self-imposed cultural lockstep, and democracies can sometimes fan the flames of nationalism, too. If it remains undemocratic, then at some point, we're going to have trouble. That's just a dead certainty. The only question is what gets here first -- Chinese democracy, or war (hot or cold) with America over regional control, (read Taiwan).

India's rise just doesn't alarm me at all. I can't think of any negatives, only positives. I love the culture, I'm not scared of the peoples' intentions vis-a-vis the rest of the world, and I'm thrilled to think of a great, democratic, economic powerhouse surging right on the MIddle East's doorstep. Whether they'll use their emerging power very effectively or not remains to be seen, Indian politics have always been messy, and there's usually about ten simultaneous scandals running in the newspapers on any given day. But the output that that nation will be capable of in sheer human capital, when they actually have some money behind them, is exciting to think about.

And those economic growth numbers? Economists have been predicting a slide back to the %5 range for ages, but lately India's been defying them at about %8 -- with the handbrake on. Nothing moves fast in Indian politics, but you have to wonder how fast that engine would hum if the handbrake comes off...